On July 21, the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments issued "Several Measures on Promoting Automobile Consumption." It was proposed that considering that the battery swapping model requires a strong scale effect and does have certain special advantages, the public sector can pilot it first and actively carry out pilots of the battery swapping model for vehicles in the public sector. This means that the battery swapping model, which was previously abandoned by most new energy car companies due to high investment costs and few compatible models, has once again been brought back to the public eye and has become the focus of common attention from all parties.

"So far, NIO has built 1,564 battery swap stations and 60 Power Journeys routes centered on battery swap stations, covering most popular domestic travel destinations." On July 21, NIO co-founder and president Qin Lihong In an interview with a reporter from Securities Daily, NIO said that NIO’s value judgment on the form of battery swapping and energy replenishment has not changed. Battery swapping is not only a business, but also a service provided to users. That is, it is a matter of value and not just profitability.

As we all know, with the surge in power load in many places across the country, the value of virtual power plants in regulating power load has become increasingly prominent. It is generally believed in the industry that new energy vehicles and energy supplement systems will play an important role in peak shaving and valley filling, grid coordinated dispatch, and promotion of new energy consumption in virtual power plant-related businesses and applications.

In this regard, Shen Fei, vice president of power management of NIO, told a reporter from Securities Daily that NIO’s power swap station has now participated in the peak and valley regulation of the power grid in Zhejiang, becoming the first domestic car company to connect to the national grid to regulate the virtual power plant.

New energy vehicle energy replenishment pattern path refreshed

Entering 2023, business models such as naked car sales and battery leasing supported by the battery swap model and its convenience of energy replenishment are regarded as one of the important paths for the development of the new energy vehicle industry. Since this year, industry giants represented by CATL, Geely, and SAIC have successively announced their entry into the battery swap track.

Qin Lihong said that adhering to the vision of "making charging more convenient than refueling", NIO has built 1,564 battery swap stations. Although the rollout of battery swap stations was relatively slow in the first half of the year, the goal of adding 1,000 battery swap stations in 2023 is expected to be completed ahead of schedule within the year.

When talking about the benefits of battery swapping, Qin Lihong summarized the benefits of battery swapping into nine major aspects compared to the previous general discussion - such as swapping battery as fast as refueling, eliminating mileage anxiety, and flexibly upgrading the battery. At the same time, due to the separation of vehicle and electricity, it lowers the threshold for car purchase and battery replacement makes the battery safer and longer, and also facilitates recycling. As well as vehicle-network interaction, it helps to cut peaks and fill valleys, and can reduce energy waste.

The benefits of the battery swap model that are taking advantage of the trend are obvious to all, but is this asset-heavy approach suitable for new energy car companies that rely on financing for development at this stage?

When the reporter asked about Nio’s considerations and expectations for cost and profit in laying out battery swap stations and Power Journeys routes, Qin Lihong told reporters that if Nio power is an independent third-party company and Nio wants to purchase services from it, it will divide We made a profit within minutes, but we were "blood brothers who didn't settle the score" and were subsidizing it with marketing expenses. "I can say with certainty that the battery swap operation is profitable. We have created a low-cost and more cooperative service facility within the system." Qin Lihong said.

However, some people believe that the strong return of the power swap model does not mean that the power swap trend has arrived at this time. Gao Chao, a researcher at the China Autonomous Driving Industry Innovation Alliance, believes that if you want to carve out a unique path in the battery swap model, you must fundamentally clarify the vehicle-battery separation model. This requires OEMs and power battery manufacturers to clarify their respective business scopes. However, It is still difficult to clearly unify the power guarantee and versatility of battery swapping across the industry, and it will still take time to fully roll out.

Can virtual power plants become a "business solution" for power exchange?

Compared with the convenience for end users claimed by new energy vehicles, the battery swap mode also has obvious advantages in terms of land efficiency, distribution network construction and battery life.

An automotive automation equipment supplier told a reporter from Securities Daily that the core equipment of the battery swap station mainly includes automation equipment, charging equipment, containers and other systems. The current overall cost is about 2.6 million yuan. The land efficiency of the battery swapping station is between 78 and 96 vehicles/parking space per day, which is twice that of DC fast charging and more than 20 times that of AC slow charging. In terms of grid interaction, the charging power of the battery swap station is more stable and controllable, with less impact on the grid system and low transformation costs.

The above-mentioned supplier said that taking the second-generation NIO station as an example, the total power is 550kW, which is far lower than that of a centralized charging station and is only approximately equal to the power grid supporting power of a standard residential area; in terms of battery life, the battery swap mode achieves quick swap while Slow charging can be taken into account. The charging rate of battery swapping stations is usually 0.5-0.6C. Compared with the charging rate of 2C or more for fast charging, the battery life and usage cycle can be greatly improved.

Dongxing Securities reported that based on the estimation that a new energy passenger car equipped with a 100kWh battery can travel 600 kilometers, which is approximately equivalent to the mileage of a passenger car with a 60L fuel tank, the upper limit of the number of passenger car battery swapping stations in the long term may reach 112,000, whichever With a single station equipment investment of 2 million yuan, the demand for battery swapping equipment for passenger cars will exceed 220 billion yuan in the future.

NIO's huge power exchange and energy storage system, coupled with other brands of new energy vehicles competing to enter the market as large-capacity battery carriers, can't help but be reminiscent of the concept of "virtual power plant" that has been hotly discussed recently.

"By 2030, 120 million kW of installed energy storage adjustable power will be needed. At that time, if 30 million electric vehicles are connected to the grid through 7kW piles at the same time, the adjustable power will reach 210 million kW." Shen Fei said bluntly. , electric vehicles and battery swapping models have very considerable potential applications and economic value in virtual power plants.

In fact, NIO is not the only car company involved in the virtual power plant business. Previously, Tesla’s energy storage business and C-end Powerwall user energy storage have already had cases of reverse power transmission connected to the grid. The price input to the grid is US$2 per 1kWh.

As of December 2022, there are 1,973 battery swap stations nationwide. The total number of battery swap stations of the three major battery swap operators is: Weilai 1,300, Aodong 565, and Hangzhou Botan 108. In terms of commercial vehicles, due to the rapid growth of battery-swapping heavy trucks, the demand for battery-swapping infrastructure for heavy trucks is rising. Energy giants such as PetroChina and Sinopec are accelerating their deployment in this area. In addition, in recent years, battery companies have also entered the field of battery replacement.

The entry of multiple forces has allowed us to see the possibility of solving the problems of inconsistent battery replacement standards and commercialization. According to the reporter's observation, with the promotion of the battery swap model, the current rapid battery swap technology has matured and been put into commercial use. At present, multiple car companies and models can share extremely fast power swaps, and the entire battery swap time can be as short as 3 minutes or even 1.5 minutes.

In Gao Chao's view, after years of development, in the charging and swapping industry, an infrastructure industry ecology is taking shape, including new energy vehicle energy replenishment services, vehicle-network interaction, energy deployment and other functions. The charging and swapping station is connected to the virtual power plant management platform, accepts the power dispatching of the power grid, and becomes the carrier of the virtual power plant. As a smart energy management system, virtual power plants can comprehensively balance the supply side and demand side of the power grid, and coordinate and optimize the stability of the power grid.

"But how to connect with the battery swap model involves a series of issues such as user willingness, facility power capacity expansion, battery health monitoring and pricing. This will be a difficult cooperation with wide coverage, large impact, and high precision, which requires Only by relying on digital means to establish a unified mechanism and platform can large-scale commercial promotion be possible. "Gao Chao believes that in general, orderly charging, vehicle-network interaction, optical storage and charging integration, and virtual power plants are still in their early stages of exploration.